New York, NY – [Date of Publication] – While foot traffic metrics offer a crucial glimpse into consumer engagement with physical retail spaces, they paint an incomplete picture of true economic performance. A deeper dive into observed card transaction data reveals a nuanced reality where a store’s ability to convert attention into sales – and ultimately, into revenue – often tells a far more compelling story. Recent analyses highlight significant divergences between foot traffic leaders and those actually driving consumer spending, underscoring the critical need for a holistic understanding of retail success.
Reports from analytics firm Placer.ai have pointed to giants like Costco and Dollar General as top performers in attracting shoppers to their physical locations. Costco, in particular, has been lauded for an impressive 18.1% surge in visits per store compared to pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, Walmart’s foot traffic has been described as "essentially flat," suggesting a lack of significant growth in shopper numbers. However, when examined through the lens of actual consumer spending, using transaction data compiled by Facteus through June 2026, a markedly different narrative emerges, challenging the initial interpretations of these traffic-centric reports.
The fundamental distinction lies in the nature of the data. Foot traffic, while valuable for gauging opportunity and consumer interest, offers no insight into the ultimate outcome of a visit. It cannot differentiate between a shopper who browsed and left empty-handed, one who made a single, low-value purchase, or another who filled their cart with a substantial basket of goods. Consequently, traffic data alone cannot reveal crucial metrics such as improving conversion rates, shrinking basket sizes, or shifts in wallet share among competing retailers.
When the same key players are analyzed using observed card spend, the leaderboard undergoes a dramatic transformation, nearly flipping the insights gleaned from foot traffic alone. This disparity emphasizes that simply showing up is not synonymous with spending, and a robust understanding of retail health necessitates integrating both visitation and transactional data.
The Costco Conundrum: More Visits, Less Momentum
Costco Wholesale has undeniably captured significant consumer attention, boasting a remarkable 18.1% increase in store visits compared to pre-pandemic benchmarks. This surge in foot traffic signals robust brand appeal and a strong draw for shoppers seeking value. However, the narrative shifts dramatically when the focus moves from the physical act of visiting to the economic exchange that follows.
Facteus transaction data reveals a concerning trend: Costco’s observed spend growth has decelerated quarter after quarter since mid-2024. What began as a healthy 14.2% increase in spend per store during Q3 2024, according to Facteus, dwindled to a mere 0.9% by Q1 2026. The situation worsened in Q2 2026, with observed spend turning negative at -1.5%. While transactions still managed a modest 1.5% growth in the same quarter, this was insufficient to offset a significant 3.0% decline in average order value.
In essence, Costco’s members are still frequenting its stores, but they are placing fewer items in their shopping carts, leading to a reduction in overall spending per trip. This shift may be partially attributed to evolving consumer demographics and their spending habits. During the first half of 2026, observed Costco spend from Generation Z consumers surged by 32%, indicating a successful outreach to younger demographics. However, this growth is juxtaposed with a 4.0% decline in spending from Baby Boomers and a 3.8% decrease from Gen X. While Costco is successfully attracting younger shoppers, their current spending patterns per visit are less than those of the older generations who appear to be curtailing their expenditure. The strong foot traffic signal at Costco is clear, but the weakening spend momentum presents a significant challenge for future revenue growth.
Walmart’s Quiet Strength: Flat Traffic, Robust Wallet Growth
Walmart’s retail journey, as depicted by Placer.ai, has been characterized by relatively flat foot traffic throughout 2025, followed by a modest 3.5% increase in visits during Q1 2026. This seemingly tepid growth in shopper numbers would, at first glance, suggest a company struggling to gain traction. However, Facteus transaction data paints a far more optimistic picture, highlighting what the traffic metrics alone failed to capture.
Contrary to the impression of stagnant visitor numbers, Walmart’s observed consumer spend experienced substantial growth, increasing by 8.6% in 2025 and accelerating to an impressive 14.2% in Q1 2026. The juxtaposition of these figures for Q1 2026 is striking: a 3.5% rise in visits was accompanied by a robust 14.2% expansion in observed spend. This indicates a significant increase in the value of each shopping trip.
Further analysis of Facteus data reveals the underlying drivers of this spending surge. Transactions at Walmart increased by 9.2% in Q1 2026, while the average order value saw a healthy 4.6% growth. These are critical economic outcomes that foot traffic counters are incapable of measuring. The strength of Walmart’s performance was not confined to a single demographic or region; observed spend grew across all geographical areas and demographic segments in the first half of 2026. While Walmart’s foot traffic story might have been the quietest, its wallet story is undoubtedly the strongest, demonstrating a profound ability to convert shopper presence into significant economic value.
Target’s Turnaround Tango: Traffic Recovers, Basket Remains the Crucial Test
Target’s recent performance offers a clearer alignment between foot traffic and transactional data, suggesting a genuine recovery is underway. In Q1 2026, Target experienced a welcome 5.1% increase in store visits, marking its first positive growth in over a year. This resurgence in shopper numbers was corroborated by Facteus data, which confirmed a recovery at the point of sale: transactions rose by 6.4%, and observed spend grew by 7.7%. This quarter represented Target’s first positive performance after five consecutive periods of decline.
However, a closer examination of Q2 2026 revealed a crucial caveat. While transactions continued their upward trajectory with a 6.8% increase, the average order value saw a modest decline of 2.2%. This moderation in basket size consequently tempered overall spend growth to 4.5% for the quarter.
This distinction is critical: while shoppers have demonstrably returned to Target’s stores, their baskets have not yet fully rebounded to previous levels of value. This ongoing test of basket recovery will be a key determinant in assessing the durability of Target’s turnaround. For the remainder of 2026, the most telling metric for Target may not be its visit count, but rather the consistent growth and recovery of its average order value, signifying a sustained increase in consumer spending per trip.
Dollar General’s Growth Engine: Frequency Fuels the Basket
Dollar General’s traffic narrative is largely shaped by its strategic emphasis on frequency and proximity. The retailer has successfully cultivated a loyal customer base, with nearly a quarter of its visitors now shopping at its stores four or more times per month. This high visit frequency naturally translates into increased opportunities for sales.
However, in 2025, this enhanced visit frequency did not initially correlate with a proportional increase in wallet share. Observed spend saw a modest growth of just 2.5%, while transactions experienced a slight decline of 0.7%. This indicated that while more trips were being made, the overall value of those trips was not significantly increasing.
The narrative has strengthened in 2026. During the first half of the year, Dollar General’s observed spend grew by a more robust 5.7%. This growth was driven by a 2.2% increase in transactions and, crucially, a 3.4% rise in average order value. The average ticket price has climbed from $21.23 in 2024 to $22.32 in the first half of 2026, indicating that shoppers are not only visiting more often but are also purchasing more items per visit. Dollar General’s current growth trajectory is not solely reliant on increased trip frequency; it is increasingly fueled by the expansion of the average basket.
Furthermore, Facteus data highlights an emerging geographic opportunity for the retailer. Dollar General’s observed spend experienced a remarkable 16.8% growth in the Western United States, which, while its smallest region, is now its fastest-growing. This suggests that the retailer, long known for its convenience in Southern communities, may be cultivating a significant new growth frontier in the West.
The Crucial Divergence: Why Traffic and Transactions Tell Different Stories
Foot traffic data, while indispensable for understanding consumer engagement, is inherently incomplete when considered in isolation. The significant divergences observed across just four major retailers in the first half of 2026 underscore this point. These differences highlight how relying solely on visitation metrics can lead to misinterpretations of a retailer’s true economic performance.
For CPG brands seeking to accurately size retail channels and allocate marketing resources, using visit share alone could mean overlooking retailers that are effectively capturing incremental spend. Similarly, commercial real estate developers evaluating the economic viability of anchor tenants based solely on foot traffic might be missing critical differences in their actual financial contributions. Retailers benchmarking their performance against competitors through visitation data alone cannot reliably distinguish between a rival gaining mere attention and one actively capturing a larger share of consumer wallets.
Ultimately, foot traffic data provides insight into consumer behavior – where consumers went. Transaction data, however, reveals the critical subsequent actions – what happened next, and what economic value was generated.
Facteus’ Perspective: Connecting the Dots for Actionable Insights
In today’s dynamic retail landscape, CPG and retail teams require more than just disconnected signals. They need comprehensive answers that illuminate what has changed, why it matters, and where strategic action is most needed. Facteus addresses this need by measuring the tangible outcomes that occur after a shopper enters a store, leveraging actual card transaction data from a panel of over 200 million American consumers. This extensive dataset offers unparalleled account-level visibility, enabling near real-time insights into evolving consumer behavior across competitors, geographic regions, demographic segments, and even specific dayparts.
While foot traffic metrics effectively identify which retailers are attracting consumer attention, transaction data provides the crucial clarity on which retailers are successfully converting that attention into tangible economic value. The most insightful and accurate view of physical retail performance emerges when these two powerful signals are analyzed side-by-side, allowing stakeholders to truly follow the dollars and understand the complete retail ecosystem.
Methodology: Spend, transaction, and average order value figures presented in this analysis reflect Facteus’ observed consumer card spend at Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General from June 1, 2023, through June 30, 2026. Year-over-year comparisons are based on matched calendar periods. All figures represent observed panel spend and are not company-reported revenue. Visitation statistics are sourced from Placer.ai’s report, "Physical Retail in 2026: How the Giants Are Winning."
