In the high-stakes arena of retail media networks (RMNs), the hierarchy has long been established: Amazon sits on the throne, Walmart operates as the formidable challenger, and a crowded field of secondary players scrambles for the remaining scraps of market share. However, as the 2024 holiday shopping season approaches, Walmart is shifting its strategy from mere participation to aggressive market capture.
By directly approaching brand clients to offer proprietary brand lift studies—effectively bypassing the agency intermediaries that have historically acted as the gatekeepers of ad spend—Walmart is signaling a bold attempt to control not just the media inventory, but the very narrative of "success" within the retail ecosystem.
Main Facts: The Direct-to-Brand Strategy
As the industry pivots toward the high-pressure environment of the fourth quarter (Q4), Walmart Connect, the retail giant’s advertising arm, has begun a proactive outreach campaign. Rather than funneling communication through digital media and marketing agencies, Walmart’s sales team is engaging brand clients directly.
The centerpiece of this outreach is the offer of on-site brand lift studies. These studies are designed to quantify the effectiveness of ad campaigns, specifically targeting the industry’s most persistent anxiety: incrementality. For years, marketers have struggled to discern whether a sale attributed to a retail media campaign was truly "incremental"—meaning the ad prompted the purchase—or if the retailer was simply taking credit for a transaction that would have occurred organically regardless of the ad spend.
While Walmart did not respond to requests for comment regarding this specific outreach strategy, industry insiders confirm that the practice is becoming increasingly common. Agency executives from firms like Stella Rising and PrograMetrix have noted that their clients are being approached with these offers, often tied to specific tiers of advertising expenditure.
Chronology: From Beta Tests to Institutionalized Strategy
The evolution of Walmart’s retail media strategy has been rapid, characterized by a transition from experimental "beta" tests to a standardized, scalable offering.
- The Early Phase (2021-2023): Walmart initially utilized one-off beta tests as a carrot to entice larger, enterprise-level advertisers. These tests were bespoke, limited in scope, and often reserved for high-spending brand partners.
- The Scaling Phase (Early 2024): As the RMN market matured, Walmart began expanding the availability of these performance-measurement tools. Industry analysts observed a distinct shift as the conversation migrated from top-tier accounts to mid-market brands.
- The Q4 Push (Current): With the holiday season looming, Walmart has institutionalized these studies as a primary sales lever. The move is timed strategically to coincide with the period when CMOs and CFOs conduct their most rigorous audits of marketing efficacy.
- Future Outlook (2025-2027): As brands finalize their long-term media budgets for 2027, Walmart’s ability to prove its worth through data is intended to cement its position as a "full-funnel" partner rather than a simple retail conversion engine.
Supporting Data: The Growth of the RMN Landscape
The urgency behind Walmart’s move is underscored by the explosive growth of the retail media sector. According to forecasts from eMarketer, advertisers are expected to invest approximately $69.33 billion into retail media networks before the end of the year.
Walmart’s own performance reflects this upward trajectory. In August 2024, the company reported that its global advertising business had surged by 38% year-over-year in the second quarter. This growth rate positions Walmart as one of the fastest-expanding RMNs in the world.
However, growth brings scrutiny. As budgets swell, the pressure to justify every dollar becomes immense. Anthony Costanzo, chief analytics officer at Mile Marker, notes that participation in these new lift studies is often tied to an advertiser’s total spend via Walmart Connect. While the exact financial thresholds remain proprietary, the fact that four of Mile Marker’s clients have already signed on to these studies highlights the demand for data-backed validation among brand managers.
Official Responses and Industry Perspectives
The reception among agencies is nuanced. While there is a natural tension created by Walmart’s bypass of the agency layer, many experts acknowledge that standardized measurement is a necessary evolution for the industry.
"From our experience, Q4 is when advertisers are least willing to fund spend they cannot defend," said Lacie Edgeman, co-owner and managing director at PrograMetrix. "Walmart is signaling that it wants to be evaluated as a full-funnel partner—awareness, consideration, and intent—not only as a lower-funnel conversion engine."
This sentiment is echoed by a spokesperson for Stella Rising, who noted that "done well, these studies are a win for both sides." Yet, beneath the professional veneer, there is a lingering concern about the lack of transparency. Because these studies are conducted within the "walled garden" of Walmart’s ecosystem, there is no independent arbiter to verify the findings.
"We’re still not able to execute the kinds of incrementality tests we’d like to, that we could do in a non-walled garden," said Costanzo. "We’re effectively asking the retailer to grade their own homework. However, it’s a step in the right direction, and we do expect other retailers to move in that direction alongside Walmart."
Implications: The War for Budget and the "Walled Garden" Problem
The implications of this shift are profound for the broader digital advertising ecosystem. By offering direct, data-driven validation, Walmart is attempting to neutralize Amazon’s primary competitive advantage: its massive, closed-loop data set.
1. The Death of the "Black Box"
For years, retail media was a "black box" where brands spent money and hoped for a return. Walmart’s move to provide granular lift studies is an acknowledgment that the "spray and pray" era is over. Brands now demand proof of incrementality, and if Walmart can provide that proof—even if it is self-reported—it creates a compelling reason for budget holders to shift dollars away from less transparent channels.
2. The Agency-Retailer Power Dynamic
Walmart’s direct approach to clients creates a delicate power dynamic. Agencies have long acted as the bridge between retailers and brands, providing independent analysis and strategy. By engaging clients directly, Walmart risks alienating the very partners who influence billions in media spend. If agencies perceive that Walmart is attempting to cut them out of the strategic conversation, they may push back by diverting clients toward other retail networks or independent platforms.
3. The Cost of Insight
There are significant trade-offs to these studies. As Edgeman points out, they are resource-intensive and time-consuming. It can take up to nine weeks after a campaign concludes for the final reporting to be delivered. For a retailer operating in the high-velocity world of e-commerce, a nine-week lag might be too slow to influence in-season optimizations.
4. Setting the New Standard
If Walmart succeeds in convincing the market that its measurement methodology is the gold standard, it will force other retailers—such as Target, Kroger, and Albertsons—to follow suit. This would accelerate the professionalization of the entire RMN category.
Conclusion: A Pivot Toward Maturity
The retail media industry is currently undergoing a "great calibration." As total ad spend nears the $70 billion mark, the tolerance for ambiguity is evaporating. Walmart’s pivot to direct-client engagement via incrementality testing is a calculated, aggressive move to capture the narrative of retail media measurement.
Whether this move will truly benefit brands or simply consolidate power within the "walled garden" remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that Walmart is no longer content to play second fiddle to Amazon. By prioritizing measurement as a core product feature, the retail giant is ensuring that when CMOs sit down to justify their Q4 investments, the conversation starts and ends with Walmart’s data.
For agencies, the challenge will be to adapt to a landscape where the retailer is both the marketplace and the auditor. For brands, the challenge will be to discern whether the lift they see in these studies is a true reflection of consumer behavior or a sophisticated pitch for more budget. As the year closes, the battle for retail media dominance will be won not just by who has the most shelf space, but by who has the most persuasive data.
